Book
``Biografia do Abismo. Como a polarização divide famílias, desafia empresas e ameaça o futuro da democracia no Brasil'' (with Thomas Traumann), Harper-Collings, 2023
Peer Reviewed Articles
``Benefits by Luck: A Study of Lotteries as a Selection Method for Government Programs'' (with Natália Bueno and Cesar Zucco). Comparative Political Studies, Vol 1, 2024.
``Pesquisas eleitorais e mudanças tardias na decisão do voto" (with Frederico Batista Pereira). Opinião Pública, Vol 30, n. 1, 2024
``Detecting Misinformation: Identifying False News Spread by Political Leaders in the Global South" (with Valerie Wirtschafter, Frederico Batista, Natália Bueno, Nara Pavão, João Pedro Santos). Journal of Quantitative Description: Digital Media, Vol 4, p 1 - 85, 2024
``Inoculation Reduces Misinformation: Experimental Evidence from a Multidimensional Intervention in Brazil'' (with Frederico Batista, Natália Bueno and Nara Pavão). Journal of Experimental Political Science, 2023.
``What You See and What You Get: Direct and Indirect Political Dividends of Public Policies'' (with Natalia Bueno and Cesar Zucco), British Journal of Political Science, p 1-20, 2023 / Recipient of the 2022 Best Paper by REPAL (Red para el Estudio de la Economía Política de América Latina)
``Who is Responsible for the Emergency Aid? Cash Transfer and Presidential Approval During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil'' (with Fred Batista e Guilherme Russo), Latin American Politics & Society (in press).
``Making the bourgeoisie? Values, voice, and state-provided homeownership'' (with Natalia Bueno e Cesar Zucco), Journal of Politics, Vol 1, p 1-30, 2022.
``Fake News, Fact Checking, and Partisanship: The Resilience of Rumors in the 2018 Brazilian Elections'' (with Fred Batista, Natalia Bueno e Nara Pavão), Journal of Politics, Vol 1, p 1-30, 2022.
``Presidential Influence and Public Opinion During Crises: The Case of COVID-19 in Brazil'' (with Fred Batista) International Journal of Public Opinion Research, v. 34, p. 1-10, 2022.
``Media Choice and the Polarization of Public Opinion About Covid-19 in Brazil'' (with Fred Batista). Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Publica, Vol 10, p. 1-19, 2021.
``The Conditional Effect of Pork: The Strategic Use of Budget Allocation to Build Government Coalitions in Brazil'', Revista Teoria & Sociedade, n 26.2, 2019 (Portuguese)
``Impeachment, Political Crisis and Democracy in Brazil'', (with Carlos Ranulfo Melo) RCP, v. 37, n. 2, 2017
``Do Voters Punish Corrupt Candidates? Accountability in the 2006 Brazilian Elections'', (with Monica Mata Machado de Castro) Opinião Pública, v. 20, n. 1, 2014 (Portuguese)
``The Left Variance: How Electoral Mechanisms Shape Leftist Presidential Behavior in Latin America'', Revista Ibero-Americana de Estudos Legislativos, n. 1, 2014
``Os determinantes dos resultados de soma positiva em Minas Gerais e no Rio Grande do Sul'', Revista de Sociologia e Política, v. 21, n. 47, 2013. (Portuguese)
``What's the Best Strategy to Obtain Legislative Support? Survey Evidence from Brazilian State Assemblies'', Brazilian Political Science Review, v. 6, n. 2, 2012 (88-113).
``State Legislative Coalitions: A Comparative Analysis of the Governments of Minas Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul Between 1998-2006", Revista Teoria & Sociedade, v. 19, n. 2, 2011. (Portuguese)
``O que fazer e o que não fazer com a regressão: pressupostos e aplicações do modelo linear de mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO)", Revista Política Hoje, v. 20, n 1, 2011. (with Dalson Figueiredo Filho, Enivaldo Rocha, Manoel Santos, Mariana Batista, and José Alexandre Junior) (Portuguese)
``Determinantes do Comportamento particularista de legisladores estaduais brasileiros", Revista Dados, Rio de Janeiro, v. 52, n. 4, 2009 (with Monica Mata Machado de Castro and Fatima Anastasia) (Portuguese)
``Convergência partidária e base parlamentar: O comportamento dos partidos na Assembléia Legislativa de Minas Gerais entre 1995 e 2005", Cadernos da Escola do Legislativo, N. 15, 2008 (Portuguese)
``Executivo e Legislativo: o Presidente da Câmara em uma coalizão contraditória'', Revista Três Pontos, N 1, Vol 2, 2006 (with Thiago Silame) (Portuguese)
``Contradições do Presidencialismo de Coalizão: Uma leitura do primeiro biênio do Governo Lula'', Revista Três Pontos, N 2, Vol 1, 2005 (with Thiago Silame) (Portuguese)
Invited Contributions
``A eleição que calcificou o país''. In: Leo Avritzer, Eliara Santana, Rachel Bragatto (org.) Eleições 2022 e a reconstrução da democracia no Brasil. Belo Horizonte: Autêntica, 2023. (with Thomas Traumann)
``Análise de redes sociais como ferramenta complementar para mensuração da opinião pública.'' (with Fernando Meirelles) Marketing Político no Brasil. São Paulo: Geração Editorial, 2022.
``Percepção parlamentar e subsistemas partidários''. In: Fabricio Tommio; Paolo Ricci. (Org.) Governadores e Assembleias Legislativas: Instituições e Política nos Estados Brasileiros. São Paulo: Alameda Editorial, 2018 (with Thiago Silame)
``Critérios de recrutamento parlamentar em comissões estratégicas no processo legislativo estadual (1999-2008)''. In: Manoel Leonardo Santos; Fatima Anastasia. (Org.). Politica e desenvolvimento institucional no legislativo de Minas Gerais. Belo Horizonte: Editora PUC Minas, 2016 (With Thiago Silame)
``A Weak Party System, but Presidentialized Political Parties: The Case of Brazil''. In: Gianluca Passarelli. The Presidentialization of Political Parties. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2015. (With Carlos Ranulfo de Melo)
``Caminhos, veredas e atalhos: Legislativos estaduais e trajetórias políticas''. In: Rachel Meneguello. O Legislativo Brasileiro: Funcionamento, composição e opinião pública. Brasília: Editora do Senado, 2012. (With Fátima Anastasia and Izabella Correa) (Portuguese)
``A margem do meio da política: as coligações entre PT e PSDB em eleições majoritárias". In: Luis Felipe Miguel, Silvana Krause, e Humberto Dantas. Coligações partidárias na nova democracia brasileira. São Paulo: UNESP, 2010. (with Fátima Anastasia and João Francisco Meira) (Portuguese)
``Ideologia e distância de preferências: Uma comparação dos governos Lagos (Chile) e Lula (Brasil)". In: Magna Inacio; Lucio Renno. O Legislativo Brasileiro em Perspectiva Comparada. Belo Horizonte, Editora UFMG, 2009. (with Carlos Ranulfo Melo) (Portuguese)
``Desde entonces hasta ahora: Las condiciones y las instituciones de la democracia Brasileña después de 1988". In: Carlos Ranulfo Melo and Manuel Alcantara Saez (Org.). La democracia brasileña. Salamanca: Editora de la Universidad de Salamanca, 2008. (with Monica Mata Machado de Castro and Fátima Anastasia) (Spanish)
``The Conditions and Institutions of Brazilian Democracy in the Post-88". In: Carlos Ranulfo Melo and Manuel Alcantara Saez (Org.). The Brazilian Democracy. Belo Horizonte, UFMG, 2008. (with Monica Mata Machado de Castro and Fátima Anastasia) (Portuguese)
``Democracy, Legislatures and Institutional Mechanisms of Participation". In: Magna Inácio, Raquel Novaes and Fatima Anastasia. The Brazilian Referendum. Belo Horizonte, UFMG, 2007. (with Izabela Correia) (Portuguese)
``Participation, Apathy and Political Motivations in a Metropolitan Area". In: Neuma Aguiar (Org.). Social inequalities, Social Networks and Political Participation. Belo Horizonte: Editora UFMG, 2007. (with Fátima Anastasia and Carlos Ranulfo Melo) (Portuguese)
``A Reforma da Representação". In: Leonardo Avritzer and Fatima Anastasia (Org.). Reforma Política no Brasil. Belo Horizonte: UFMG, 2006, p. 1-271. (with Fátima Anastasia) (Portuguese)
Under Review
``Benefits by Luck: A Study of Lotteries as a Selection Method for Government Programs'' (with Cesar Zucco and Natalia Bueno). Unpublished Manuscript.
``Core Voters or Local Allies? Presidential Discretionary Spending in Centralized and Decentralized Systems in Latin America'' (Submitted to APSR)
``A Bayesian Approach to Fit a Two-part Mixture Model for Longitudinal Government Expenditure Data'' (Revise and resubmit at JASA)
``Maintaining a Logroll or Building a Party? The Coalition Politics of Transfer Spending in Brazil'' (with Kathleen Bawn) (Revise and resubmit at AJPS)
``Does the Message Really Matter? Economy and Poll Rates in the 2010 Brazilian Presidential Election'' (with João Francisco Meira) (Revise and resubmit at JPP)
Working Papers
``Political Elites, Misinformation, and Mobilization: Evidence from Brazil'' (with Frederico Batista, Natália Bueno, Nara Pavão, João Pedro de Oliveira and Valerie Wirtschafter). Unpublished Manuscript.
``Detecting Misinformation: The Spread of False News by Political Leaders in the Global South'' (with Frederico Batista, Natália Bueno, Nara Pavão, João Pedro de Oliveira and Valerie Wirtschafter). Unpublished Manuscript.
``Pesquisas eleitorais e mudanças tardias na decisão do voto'' (with Frederico Batista). Unpublished Manuscript.
``What Kills a Rumor? Analyzing Fake News in Brazilian Elections'' (with Natalia Bueno, Nara Pavão e Fred Batista). Unpublished Manuscript.
``Do Governments Make Dreams Come True? An Analysis of `Minha Casa Minha Vida' Housing Program'' (with Cesar Zucco and Natalia Bueno). Unpublished Manuscript.
``Share the Wealth? How Leaders Distribute Natural Gas Revenues in Peru'' (with Paasha Mahdavi)
``Popularity, Legislative Majority, or Party Building: A Structural Model to Estimate Presidents' Priorities in Latin America''. Unpublished Manuscript.
``Inflation or Moderation? Presidential Runoffs, Legislative Party Systems, and Coalitionswho-is-responsible-for-the-emergency-aid-cash-transfer-and-presidential-approval-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-brazil.pdf'' (with Michael Thies). Unpublished Manuscript.
``Biografia do Abismo. Como a polarização divide famílias, desafia empresas e ameaça o futuro da democracia no Brasil'' (with Thomas Traumann), Harper-Collings, 2023
Peer Reviewed Articles
``Benefits by Luck: A Study of Lotteries as a Selection Method for Government Programs'' (with Natália Bueno and Cesar Zucco). Comparative Political Studies, Vol 1, 2024.
- Recipient of the 2024 Best Paper on Comparative Policy Paper at APSA Conference
``Pesquisas eleitorais e mudanças tardias na decisão do voto" (with Frederico Batista Pereira). Opinião Pública, Vol 30, n. 1, 2024
``Detecting Misinformation: Identifying False News Spread by Political Leaders in the Global South" (with Valerie Wirtschafter, Frederico Batista, Natália Bueno, Nara Pavão, João Pedro Santos). Journal of Quantitative Description: Digital Media, Vol 4, p 1 - 85, 2024
``Inoculation Reduces Misinformation: Experimental Evidence from a Multidimensional Intervention in Brazil'' (with Frederico Batista, Natália Bueno and Nara Pavão). Journal of Experimental Political Science, 2023.
``What You See and What You Get: Direct and Indirect Political Dividends of Public Policies'' (with Natalia Bueno and Cesar Zucco), British Journal of Political Science, p 1-20, 2023 / Recipient of the 2022 Best Paper by REPAL (Red para el Estudio de la Economía Política de América Latina)
``Who is Responsible for the Emergency Aid? Cash Transfer and Presidential Approval During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil'' (with Fred Batista e Guilherme Russo), Latin American Politics & Society (in press).
``Making the bourgeoisie? Values, voice, and state-provided homeownership'' (with Natalia Bueno e Cesar Zucco), Journal of Politics, Vol 1, p 1-30, 2022.
- Recipient of the 2021 Best Paper on Public Policy Award by APSA Public Policy Section
``Fake News, Fact Checking, and Partisanship: The Resilience of Rumors in the 2018 Brazilian Elections'' (with Fred Batista, Natalia Bueno e Nara Pavão), Journal of Politics, Vol 1, p 1-30, 2022.
``Presidential Influence and Public Opinion During Crises: The Case of COVID-19 in Brazil'' (with Fred Batista) International Journal of Public Opinion Research, v. 34, p. 1-10, 2022.
``Media Choice and the Polarization of Public Opinion About Covid-19 in Brazil'' (with Fred Batista). Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Publica, Vol 10, p. 1-19, 2021.
``The Conditional Effect of Pork: The Strategic Use of Budget Allocation to Build Government Coalitions in Brazil'', Revista Teoria & Sociedade, n 26.2, 2019 (Portuguese)
``Impeachment, Political Crisis and Democracy in Brazil'', (with Carlos Ranulfo Melo) RCP, v. 37, n. 2, 2017
``Do Voters Punish Corrupt Candidates? Accountability in the 2006 Brazilian Elections'', (with Monica Mata Machado de Castro) Opinião Pública, v. 20, n. 1, 2014 (Portuguese)
``The Left Variance: How Electoral Mechanisms Shape Leftist Presidential Behavior in Latin America'', Revista Ibero-Americana de Estudos Legislativos, n. 1, 2014
``Os determinantes dos resultados de soma positiva em Minas Gerais e no Rio Grande do Sul'', Revista de Sociologia e Política, v. 21, n. 47, 2013. (Portuguese)
``What's the Best Strategy to Obtain Legislative Support? Survey Evidence from Brazilian State Assemblies'', Brazilian Political Science Review, v. 6, n. 2, 2012 (88-113).
``State Legislative Coalitions: A Comparative Analysis of the Governments of Minas Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul Between 1998-2006", Revista Teoria & Sociedade, v. 19, n. 2, 2011. (Portuguese)
``O que fazer e o que não fazer com a regressão: pressupostos e aplicações do modelo linear de mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO)", Revista Política Hoje, v. 20, n 1, 2011. (with Dalson Figueiredo Filho, Enivaldo Rocha, Manoel Santos, Mariana Batista, and José Alexandre Junior) (Portuguese)
``Determinantes do Comportamento particularista de legisladores estaduais brasileiros", Revista Dados, Rio de Janeiro, v. 52, n. 4, 2009 (with Monica Mata Machado de Castro and Fatima Anastasia) (Portuguese)
``Convergência partidária e base parlamentar: O comportamento dos partidos na Assembléia Legislativa de Minas Gerais entre 1995 e 2005", Cadernos da Escola do Legislativo, N. 15, 2008 (Portuguese)
``Executivo e Legislativo: o Presidente da Câmara em uma coalizão contraditória'', Revista Três Pontos, N 1, Vol 2, 2006 (with Thiago Silame) (Portuguese)
``Contradições do Presidencialismo de Coalizão: Uma leitura do primeiro biênio do Governo Lula'', Revista Três Pontos, N 2, Vol 1, 2005 (with Thiago Silame) (Portuguese)
Invited Contributions
``A eleição que calcificou o país''. In: Leo Avritzer, Eliara Santana, Rachel Bragatto (org.) Eleições 2022 e a reconstrução da democracia no Brasil. Belo Horizonte: Autêntica, 2023. (with Thomas Traumann)
``Análise de redes sociais como ferramenta complementar para mensuração da opinião pública.'' (with Fernando Meirelles) Marketing Político no Brasil. São Paulo: Geração Editorial, 2022.
``Percepção parlamentar e subsistemas partidários''. In: Fabricio Tommio; Paolo Ricci. (Org.) Governadores e Assembleias Legislativas: Instituições e Política nos Estados Brasileiros. São Paulo: Alameda Editorial, 2018 (with Thiago Silame)
``Critérios de recrutamento parlamentar em comissões estratégicas no processo legislativo estadual (1999-2008)''. In: Manoel Leonardo Santos; Fatima Anastasia. (Org.). Politica e desenvolvimento institucional no legislativo de Minas Gerais. Belo Horizonte: Editora PUC Minas, 2016 (With Thiago Silame)
``A Weak Party System, but Presidentialized Political Parties: The Case of Brazil''. In: Gianluca Passarelli. The Presidentialization of Political Parties. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2015. (With Carlos Ranulfo de Melo)
``Caminhos, veredas e atalhos: Legislativos estaduais e trajetórias políticas''. In: Rachel Meneguello. O Legislativo Brasileiro: Funcionamento, composição e opinião pública. Brasília: Editora do Senado, 2012. (With Fátima Anastasia and Izabella Correa) (Portuguese)
``A margem do meio da política: as coligações entre PT e PSDB em eleições majoritárias". In: Luis Felipe Miguel, Silvana Krause, e Humberto Dantas. Coligações partidárias na nova democracia brasileira. São Paulo: UNESP, 2010. (with Fátima Anastasia and João Francisco Meira) (Portuguese)
``Ideologia e distância de preferências: Uma comparação dos governos Lagos (Chile) e Lula (Brasil)". In: Magna Inacio; Lucio Renno. O Legislativo Brasileiro em Perspectiva Comparada. Belo Horizonte, Editora UFMG, 2009. (with Carlos Ranulfo Melo) (Portuguese)
``Desde entonces hasta ahora: Las condiciones y las instituciones de la democracia Brasileña después de 1988". In: Carlos Ranulfo Melo and Manuel Alcantara Saez (Org.). La democracia brasileña. Salamanca: Editora de la Universidad de Salamanca, 2008. (with Monica Mata Machado de Castro and Fátima Anastasia) (Spanish)
``The Conditions and Institutions of Brazilian Democracy in the Post-88". In: Carlos Ranulfo Melo and Manuel Alcantara Saez (Org.). The Brazilian Democracy. Belo Horizonte, UFMG, 2008. (with Monica Mata Machado de Castro and Fátima Anastasia) (Portuguese)
``Democracy, Legislatures and Institutional Mechanisms of Participation". In: Magna Inácio, Raquel Novaes and Fatima Anastasia. The Brazilian Referendum. Belo Horizonte, UFMG, 2007. (with Izabela Correia) (Portuguese)
``Participation, Apathy and Political Motivations in a Metropolitan Area". In: Neuma Aguiar (Org.). Social inequalities, Social Networks and Political Participation. Belo Horizonte: Editora UFMG, 2007. (with Fátima Anastasia and Carlos Ranulfo Melo) (Portuguese)
``A Reforma da Representação". In: Leonardo Avritzer and Fatima Anastasia (Org.). Reforma Política no Brasil. Belo Horizonte: UFMG, 2006, p. 1-271. (with Fátima Anastasia) (Portuguese)
Under Review
``Benefits by Luck: A Study of Lotteries as a Selection Method for Government Programs'' (with Cesar Zucco and Natalia Bueno). Unpublished Manuscript.
``Core Voters or Local Allies? Presidential Discretionary Spending in Centralized and Decentralized Systems in Latin America'' (Submitted to APSR)
``A Bayesian Approach to Fit a Two-part Mixture Model for Longitudinal Government Expenditure Data'' (Revise and resubmit at JASA)
``Maintaining a Logroll or Building a Party? The Coalition Politics of Transfer Spending in Brazil'' (with Kathleen Bawn) (Revise and resubmit at AJPS)
``Does the Message Really Matter? Economy and Poll Rates in the 2010 Brazilian Presidential Election'' (with João Francisco Meira) (Revise and resubmit at JPP)
Working Papers
``Political Elites, Misinformation, and Mobilization: Evidence from Brazil'' (with Frederico Batista, Natália Bueno, Nara Pavão, João Pedro de Oliveira and Valerie Wirtschafter). Unpublished Manuscript.
``Detecting Misinformation: The Spread of False News by Political Leaders in the Global South'' (with Frederico Batista, Natália Bueno, Nara Pavão, João Pedro de Oliveira and Valerie Wirtschafter). Unpublished Manuscript.
``Pesquisas eleitorais e mudanças tardias na decisão do voto'' (with Frederico Batista). Unpublished Manuscript.
``What Kills a Rumor? Analyzing Fake News in Brazilian Elections'' (with Natalia Bueno, Nara Pavão e Fred Batista). Unpublished Manuscript.
``Do Governments Make Dreams Come True? An Analysis of `Minha Casa Minha Vida' Housing Program'' (with Cesar Zucco and Natalia Bueno). Unpublished Manuscript.
``Share the Wealth? How Leaders Distribute Natural Gas Revenues in Peru'' (with Paasha Mahdavi)
``Popularity, Legislative Majority, or Party Building: A Structural Model to Estimate Presidents' Priorities in Latin America''. Unpublished Manuscript.
``Inflation or Moderation? Presidential Runoffs, Legislative Party Systems, and Coalitionswho-is-responsible-for-the-emergency-aid-cash-transfer-and-presidential-approval-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-brazil.pdf'' (with Michael Thies). Unpublished Manuscript.
