• A Workers’ Inquiry (1880), Karl Marx • História das pesquisas de mercado no Brasil (projeto ABEP) • Public Opinion Polling Basics: A Short Course Explaining How Public Opinion Polling Works (Pew Research Center)
Aula 1.2 – O que são e para que servem pesquisas de survey (SLIDES)
Leituras obrigatórias:
• Groves, R. M., Fowler Jr, F. J., Couper, M. P., Lepkowski, J. M., Singer, E., & Tourangeau, R. (2011). Survey methodology. John Wiley & Sons. Cap. 1 [livro] • Zaller, J., & Feldman, S. (1992). A simple theory of the survey response: Answering questions versus revealing preferences. American journal of political science, 579–616.
Leituras sugeridas: • Converse, P. E. (2006). The nature of belief systems in mass publics (1964). Critical review, 18(1-3), 1–74. • Green, D. P., Palmquist, B., & Schickler, E. (2004). Partisan hearts and minds: Political parties and the social identities of voters. Yale University Press.
• Groves, R. M., Fowler Jr, F. J., Couper, M. P., Lepkowski, J. M., Singer, E., & Tourangeau, R. (2011). Survey methodology. John Wiley & Sons. Cap. 2 [livro] • Berinsky, A. J. (2017). Measuring public opinion with surveys. Annual review of political science, 20(1), 309–329.
Leituras sugeridas:
• Groves, R. M., & Lyberg, L. (2010). Total survey error: Past, present, and future. Public opinion quarterly, 74(5), 849–879. • Wolf, C., Joye, D., Smith, T. W., & Fu, Y. (2016). The SAGE handbook of survey methodology. Sage. Cap. 3 [livro]
• Groves, R. M., Fowler Jr, F. J., Couper, M. P., Lepkowski, J. M., Singer, E., & Tourangeau, R. (2011). Survey methodology. John Wiley & Sons. Caps. 3–4 [livro] • Rossi, P. H., Wright, J. D., & Anderson, A. B. (1983). Handbook of survey research. Academic press. Cap. 2 [livro]
Leituras sugeridas:
• Como avaliar a qualidade das pesquisas de opinião pública no Brasil?, Neale El-Dash (Polling-Data) • Squire, P. (1988). Why the 1936 Literary Digest poll failed. Public Opinion Quarterly, 52(1), 125–133. • Lusinchi, D. (2012). “President” Landon and the 1936 Literary Digest Poll: were automobile and telephone owners to blame? Social Science History, 36(1), 23–54.
• Krosnick, J. A. (2018). Questionnaire Design. Em D. L. Vannette & J. A. Krosnick (Org.), The Palgrave Handbook of Survey Research (p. 439–455). Springer International Publishing. • Wolf, C., Joye, D., Smith, T. W., & Fu, Y. (2016). The SAGE handbook of survey methodology. Sage. Cap. 16 [livro]
Leituras sugeridas:
• Groves, R. M., Fowler Jr, F. J., Couper, M. P., Lepkowski, J. M., Singer, E., & Tourangeau, R. (2011). Survey methodology. John Wiley & Sons., Caps. 7–8 [livro] • Schaeffer, N. C., & Dykema, J. (2011). Questions for surveys: current trends and future directions. Public opinion quarterly, 75(5), 909–961. • Baker, A., & Renno, L. (2019). Nonpartisans as false negatives: the mismeasurement of party identification in public opinion surveys. The Journal of Politics, 81(3), 906–922. • Luskin, R. C., & Bullock, J. G. (2011). “Don’t know” means “don’t know”: DK responses and the public’s level of political knowledge. The Journal of Politics, 73(2), 547–557.
• Groves, R. M., Fowler Jr, F. J., Couper, M. P., Lepkowski, J. M., Singer, E., & Tourangeau, R. (2011). Survey methodology. John Wiley & Sons. Cap. 10 [livro] • Lumley, T. (2010). Complex surveys: a guide to analysis using R. John Wiley & Sons. Caps. 1–2 [livro]
Leituras sugeridas:
• Shirani-Mehr, H., Rothschild, D., Goel, S., & Gelman, A. (2018). Disentangling bias and variance in election polls. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 113(522), 607–614. • Valliant, R., Dever, J. A., Kreuter, F., Valliant, R., Dever, J. A., & Kreuter, F. (2018). Nonprobability sampling. Practical tools for designing and weighting survey samples, 565–603. [livro]
• Lumley, T. (2010). Complex surveys: a guide to analysis using R. John Wiley & Sons. Cap.7 [livro] • Wolf, C., Joye, D., Smith, T. W., & Fu, Y. (2016). The SAGE handbook of survey methodology.Sage. Cap. 31 [livro]
Leituras sugeridas:
• Survey Weights in AmericasBarometer (LAPOP) • How different weighting methods work (Pew Research Center)
Aula 4.3 – Pós-estratificação com modelos (SLIDES)
Leituras obrigatórias:
• Wang, W., Rothschild, D., Goel, S., & Gelman, A. (2015). Forecasting elections with nonrepresentative polls. International Journal of Forecasting, 31(3), 980–991. • Hanretty, C. (2020). An Introduction to Multilevel Regression and Post-Stratification for Estimating Constituency Opinion: Political Studies Review, 18(4), 630–645.
Leituras sugeridas:
• Lax, J. R., & Phillips, J. H. (2009). How Should We Estimate Public Opinion in the States. American Journal of Political Science, 53(1), 107–121. • Buttice, M. K., & Highton, B. (2013). How does multilevel regression and poststratification perform with conventional national surveys? Political analysis, 21(04), 449–467. • Lopez-Martin, J., Phillips, J. H., & Gelman, A. (2022). Multilevel regression and poststratification case studies. URL https://bookdown.org/jl5522/MRP-case-studies/, 902, 903.
Leituras obrigatórias: • Ghitza, Y., & Gelman, A. (2013). Deep Interactions with MRP: Election Turnout and Voting Patterns Among Small Electoral Subgroups. American Journal of Political Science, 57(3), 762–776. • Bisbee, J. (2019). BARP: Improving Mister P Using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. American Political Science Review, 113(4), 1060–1065.
Leituras sugeridas:
• Goplerud, M. (2023). Re-Evaluating Machine Learning for MRP Given the Comparable Performance of (Deep) Hierarchical Models. American Political Science Review, 1–8. • Leemann, L., & Wasserfallen, F. (2017). Extending the Use and Prediction Precision of Subnational Public Opinion Estimation. American Journal of Political Science, 61(4), 1003–1022.
Aula 5.2 – Não-resposta
Leituras obrigatórias:
• Wolf, C., Joye, D., Smith, T. W., & Fu, Y. (2016). The SAGE handbook of survey methodology. Sage. Cap. 27 [livro] • Curtin, R., Presser, S., & Singer, E. (2005). Changes in telephone survey nonresponse over the past quarter century. Public opinion quarterly, 69(1), 87–98.
Leituras sugeridas:
• Clinton, J. D., Lapinski, J. S., & Trussler, M. J. (2022). Reluctant Republicans, eager Democrats? Partisan nonresponse and the accuracy of 2020 presidential pre-election telephone polls. Public Opinion Quarterly, 86(2), 247–269. • Cavari, A., & Freedman, G. (2023). Survey nonresponse and mass polarization: The consequences of declining contact and cooperation rates. American Political Science Review, 117(1), 332–339. • Peytchev, A., Baxter, R. K., & Carley-Baxter, L. R. (2009). Not all survey effort is equal: Reduction of nonresponse bias and nonresponse error. Public Opinion Quarterly, 73(4), 785–806.
Aula 5.3 – Viés de desejabilidade social
Leituras obrigatórias:
• Tourangeau, R., & Yan, T. (2007). Sensitive questions in surveys. Psychological bulletin, 133(5), 859. • Rosenfeld, B., Imai, K., & Shapiro, J. N. (2016). An empirical validation study of popular survey methodologies for sensitive questions. American Journal of Political Science, 60(3), 783–802.
Leituras sugeridas:
• Coppock, A. (2017). Did shy Trump supporters bias the 2016 polls? Evidence from a nationally-representative list experiment. Statistics, Politics and Policy, 8(1), 29–40. • Streb, M. J., Burrell, B., Frederick, B., & Genovese, M. A. (2008). Social desirability effects and support for a female American president. Public Opinion Quarterly, 72(1), 76–89. • DeBell, M., Krosnick, J. A., Gera, K., Yeager, D. S., & McDonald, M. P. (2020). The turnout gap in surveys: Explanations and solutions. Sociological Methods & Research, 49(4), 1133–1162. • Hadaway, C. K., Marler, P. L., & Chaves, M. (1993). What the polls don’t show: A closer look at US church attendance. American Sociological Review, 741–752. • Measuring Gender Identity in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAPOP)
Aula 5.4 – Pesquisas eleitorais, eleitorado provável e indecisos
Leituras obrigatórias:
• Kenett, R. S., Pfeffermann, D., & Steinberg, D. M. (2018). Election polls—a survey, a critique, and proposals. Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, 5(1), 1–24. • Rentsch, A., Schaffner, B. F., & Gross, J. H. (2019). The elusive likely voter: Improving electoral predictions with more informed vote-propensity models. Public Opinion Quarterly, 83(4), 782–804.
Leituras sugeridas:
• Meireles, F., & Russo, G. (2022). Pesquisas eleitorais no Brasil: tendências e desempenho. Estudos Avançados, 36, 117–131. • Pereira, F. B., & Nunes, F. (2024). Pesquisas eleitorais e mudanças tardias na decisão do voto. Opinião Pública, 30, e3011. • Hillygus, D. S. (2011). The Evolution of Election Polling in the United States. Public Opinion Quarterly, 75(5), 962–981.
